How van Gisbergen can win the Supercars Championship today

Shane van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen is in the box seat to seal his second Repco Supercars Championship title today.

The triumph would not be official until the conclusion of the season finale, and it should be noted there is an outside chance that points would change a ‘certain’ outcome.

However, as long as the 2016 champion’s lead over Red Bull Ampol Racing team-mate Jamie Whincup is at least 300 points after Race 30 this afternoon at Sydney Motorsport Park, another title is his.

Van Gisbergen’s lead in the standings is currently 349 points and, with the first countback of race wins to remain in his favour regardless of what happens now, he can therefore afford to cede as many as 49 points today while still wrapping up the championship.

At the simple end of the spectrum of scenarios, the New Zealander guarantees at least a 301-point lead by finishing sixth, given he would pick up 102 points compared to no more than 150 for a Whincup race win.

Whincup needs at least 50 points, so he must at least finish 18th, in order to collect 51 points and force his team-mate to also finish in order to seal the deal.

In the unlikely scenario that the seven-time champion finishes 19th or worse, or not at all, there is no hope of an eighth drivers’ crown.

No one outside of Triple Eight Race Engineering can win the title now, given third-placed Will Davison is already a long way more than 450 points behind van Gisbergen.

Van Gisbergen will start Race 30, beginning 15:15 local time/AEDT, from second on the grid, with Whincup managing just seventh in the Top 10 Shootout.

See below for the full list of scenarios

If Whincup wins, van Gisbergen must finish sixth or better.

If Whincup finishes second, van Gisbergen must finish eighth or better.

If Whincup finishes third, van Gisbergen must finish ninth or better.

If Whincup finishes fourth, van Gisbergen must finish 11th or better.

If Whincup finishes fifth, van Gisbergen must finish 14th or better.

If Whincup finishes sixth, van Gisbergen must finish 17th or better.

If Whincup finishes seventh, van Gisbergen must finish 19th or better.

If Whincup finishes eighth, van Gisbergen must finish 21st or better.

If Whincup finishes ninth, van Gisbergen must finish 23rd or better.

If Whincup finishes 10th to 18th, van Gisbergen must finish in any position in the 24-car field.

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