STATS WEEK: Analysis of soft/hard qualifying

With the 2011 V8 Supercars Championship currently at its halfway mark, Speedcafe.com puts the first 15 races under the microscope in a five-part STATS WEEK analysis.

In the final instalment of Speedcafe.com’s mid-season STATS WEEK, we provide an insight into the qualifying performances of each driver competing in the 2011 V8 Supercars Championship, with particular reference to Dunlop’s soft and hard tyre compounds.

Grid positions for the first 15 races have been decided seven times during sessions run on the hard tyre and eight times by sessions run on the soft tyre.

While we must keep in mind that there are many variables other than tyres at play on each occasion, the spread of sessions run on each tyre gives enough data to note trends that appear.

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Our first table ranks the drivers in order of average qualifying performance, while also displaying their average qualifying positions on the soft and the hard tyres.

The Delta value gives the difference between average qualifying position on the hard tyre and average qualifying position on the soft. A positive value indicates that, on average, a driver qualifies better on the hard tyre.

Topping both the soft and hard compound averages means Jamie Whincup’s overall average of 2.2 leads the field by some margin, with team-mate Craig Lowndes edging out Mark Winterbottom for second.

We can see from the Delta value that Kelly Racing drivers Rick Kelly and David Reynolds have proven the most negatively affected by having to qualify on the soft tyre, with soft tyre averages 8.0 and 5.8 places lower than their hard tyre averages respectively.

When soft tyres are used in qualifying, Will Davison, Greg Murphy, Russell Ingall and Shane van Gisbergen also lose, on average, four or more places compared to their respective hard tyre qualifying performances.

Interestingly, van Gisbergen’s Stone Brothers Racing team-mate Alex Davison gains, on average, a whopping 10.9 grid positions when qualifying on the soft compared to the hard.

Jason Bright, Fabian Coulthard, Steve Johnson and Michael Caruso join the IRWIN Racing driver in qualifying significantly better on the soft tyre than the hard.

It should be noted that we could also use the Delta to say, for example, that Rick Kelly is the most positively affected by having to qualify on the hard tyre, gaining on average 8.0 grid positions compared to his average on the soft tyre. Hence the Delta’s sole purpose is to give a relative indicator of performance from one tyre to the other.

Also note that the season’s two weather-affected qualifying sessions, for Races 5 and 6 in Hamilton (both run on the soft tyre), have been omitted from this analysis, and that Steve Owen’s failure to compete in Race 4 qualifying and Greg Murphy’s exclusion from Race 11 qualifying have both been treated as if the driver qualified in 28th position.

Overall Rank	Driver	Overall	Soft	Hard	Delta
1	Jamie Whincup	2.2	1.7	2.7	1.0
2	Craig Lowndes	4.2	2.7	5.4	2.8
3	Mark Winterbottom	4.6	5.8	3.6	-2.3
4	Lee Holdsworth	7.2	8.7	5.9	-2.8
5	Steven Johnson	7.3	4.8	9.4	4.6
6	Will Davison	8.8	11.8	6.3	-5.5
7	Jason Bright	10.0	6.7	12.9	6.2
8	Garth Tander	10.2	8.7	11.4	2.8
9	Rick Kelly	12.4	16.7	8.7	-8.0
10	James Courtney	12.4	13.0	11.9	-1.1
11	Tim Slade	13.6	13.2	14.0	0.8
12	Paul Dumbrell	13.8	13.0	14.6	1.6
13	Alex Davison	13.8	8.0	18.9	10.9
14	David Reynolds	14.5	17.7	11.9	-5.8
15	Shane van Gisbergen	15.2	17.3	13.3	-4.0
16	Michael Caruso	16.2	13.8	18.1	4.3
17	Fabian Coulthard	16.6	13.8	19.0	5.2
18	Jonathon Webb	16.8	18.3	15.6	-2.8
19	Jason Bargwanna	18.0	18.2	17.9	-0.3
20	Tony D’Alberto	18.4	17.5	19.1	1.6
21	Russell Ingall	18.7	21.0	16.7	-4.3
22	Steve Owen	18.9	20.5	17.6	-2.9
23	Greg Murphy	19.1	21.7	16.9	-4.8
24	James Moffat	19.5	20.2	18.9	-1.3
25	Todd Kelly	20.5	19.3	21.6	2.2
26	Karl Reindler	21.8	20.7	22.7	2.0
27	Dean Fiore	24.8	24.5	25.0	0.5
28	Warren Luff	26.5	26.8	26.3	-0.5

For ease of viewing, our second table again ranks the drivers in order of average qualifying performance, but this time with the soft and hard tyre averages replaced by ordered rankings constructed from the averages. This is essentially another way to display the same data.

The Delta value however has changed and now represents the difference between the championship position and the average qualifying rank.

Here, a positive value indicates that the driver has a worse championship position than their raw speed indicates they should. Again, the Delta is a relative value only.

Those with championship positions well below their average qualifying rank include David Reynolds, James Courtney and Lee Holdsworth, who are 10, nine and seven positions respectively lower in the championship than their average qualifying performance indicates they should.

Conversely, van Gisbergen third place in the championship is 12 positions ahead of his average qualifying rank.

Others to perform, on average, relatively stronger in the races than in qualifying include Rick Kelly, Fabian Coulthard, Steve Owen and Greg Murphy, who are all five places higher in the championship than in the average qualifying rankings.

Overall Rank	Driver	Soft	Hard	Champ Pos	Delta
1	Jamie Whincup	1	1	1	0
2	Craig Lowndes	2	3	2	0
3	Mark Winterbottom	4	2	5	2
4	Lee Holdsworth	7	4	11	7
5	Steven Johnson	3	7	8	3
6	Will Davison	9	5	6	0
7	Jason Bright	5	11	10	3
8	Garth Tander	8	8	7	-1
9	Rick Kelly	15	6	4	-5
10	James Courtney	10	9	19	9
11	Tim Slade	12	13	13	2
12	Paul Dumbrell	11	14	16	4
13	Alex Davison	6	21	9	-4
14	David Reynolds	18	10	24	10
15	Shane van Gisbergen	16	12	3	-12
16	Michael Caruso	13	20	14	-2
17	Fabian Coulthard	14	23	12	-5
18	Jonathon Webb	20	15	22	4
19	Jason Bargwanna	19	19	15	-4
20	Tony D’Alberto	17	24	25	5
21	Russell Ingall	25	16	20	-1
22	Steve Owen	23	18	17	-5
23	Greg Murphy	26	17	18	-5
24	James Moffat	22	22	21	-3
25	Todd Kelly	21	25	23	-2
26	Karl Reindler	24	26	27	1
27	Dean Fiore	27	27	26	-1
28	Warren Luff	28	28	28	0

This concludes Speedcafe.com’s mid-season STATS WEEK for 2011.